The State Of The AFC East in 2023
With all four franchises out of contention, what is next for each team in 2023?
At the end of the 2022-2023 season, the AFC East regular season standings were as such:
Buffalo Bills — 13-3
Miami Dolphins — 9-8
New England Patriots — 8-9
New York Jets — 7-10
With a combined record of 37-30, the AFC East ranked amongst the most competitive in the NFL last season. And all four franchises have things to hang their hats on going forward.
The Jets strung together a series of good drafts and have a promising young core, the Dolphins have a pair of dynamic playmakers on offense, the Bills have an MVP-caliber quarterback and receiver, and the Patriots have loads of cap room and are on track to revamp their coaching staff.
But when you pull the camera back just a bit, significant problems remain for all four teams that will likely turn a competitive division into an all-out slugfest.
In 2023, it is not clear who will be on top, and there is a possibility for a massive shakeup in the standings.
The Buffalo Bills
On Sunday, the Bills fell to the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-10, in a rematch of their suspended game involving the Damar Hamlin incident.
Despite Josh Allen taking care of the football for the majority of the game, Cincinnati’s ability to clamp down on Buffalo’s rushing attack and control the time of possession was too great an obstacle to overcome. Lauded as a "Super Bowl Favorite,” the Bills failed to reach the AFC Championship game for a second straight year. And while Allen remains under contract until 2028, the road to the Super Bowl is likely to get much harder.
Per OverTheCap.com, Allen is set to make $27.5 million during the 2023 season, an increase of $23.4 million from 2022. And while having a game-changing quarterback is worth the money, retaining players and adding players in free agency becomes more difficult when up against the cap.
The Bills' unrestricted free agents include S Jordan Poyer, LB Tremaine Edmunds, G Rodger Saffold, RB Devin Singletary, P Sam Martin, DT Jordan Phillips, DE Shaq Lawson, OL David Quessenberry, OL Greg Van Roten, LB A.J. Klein. Many of those are blue chip, cornerstone pieces that would be hard to sign and even harder to lose.
In fact, in 2023, the Bills will need to cut players or restructure their contracts, as they are just over $5 million in the negative. Once again, the need to build around a quarterback on a rookie deal rears its ugly head.
Will Buffalo collapse and return to the Bills of old? No, but they have reached the midpoint of their window of success. Josh Allen will still do Josh Allen things, but the ability to add pieces around him and maintain the success that has is going to get more difficult.
All the while they open up the door for another AFC East foe to challenge them for the number one spot in the division.
The Miami Dolphins
Over the last two years, the Dolphins have been a team of great ups and downs. In 2022, Miami started the season 3-0 before dropping three-straight games. Then, at 3-3, Miami rattled off five-straight wins. At 8-3, Miami went on to drop five straight before closing out the season with a win against the Jets. That up-and-down pattern was, in microcosm, the Dolphins' season.
Miami has two players in, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, that can change a game in an instant. Their ability to make magic happen with the ball in their hands is always a threat, and their league-leading breakaway speed does not hurt either. As a result, Miami is never truly out of a game. And the one critique of the Dolphins as a legitimate contender has been their quarterback situation.
Unfortunately for Miami, their quarterback issues have gotten far more serious after the multiple concussions quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered in 2022. Durability had always been an issue for him, but with a new string of repeated head injuries, how long he will be the quarterback in Miami becomes a legitimate question.
If Tagovailoa does not want to continue playing at any point in the future, Miami could be without its promising young quarterback. On the flip side, whether or not Miami even decides to extend him is a legitimate question.
Miami could, for a very cynical reason, not want to extend him purely for not wanting to put their franchise in the precarious position of dealing with a player with a history of head injury. As far as PR nightmares go in the NFL, an allegation of gross negligence when dealing with head injuries is as bad as it gets.
The Dolphins have the pieces in place to be successful, but their inability to modulate their teams’ success and questions at quarterback, unfortunately, make them a wild card. They could be stellar in 2023, or a team that, yet again, cannot get its act together in time for the post-season.
The New York Jets
In many ways, the Jets took a big step forward in 2022.
Their defense frequently ranked among the top of the league in many categories and their draft class from 2022 featured multiple All-Rookie Team selections. The problem from New York, though, lies at quarterback.
Zach Wilson, despite having better pieces all-around to work with, still looked as if he is not ready to play at an NFL level. And for the former second-overall pick back in 2021, if not now, when will he ever come into his own?
The Jets are stuck between a rock and a hard place, as they cannot give up on the investment they sunk the second-overall pick into, but also cannot afford to trot Wilson out on a routine basis and expect to win.
In 2022, New York had more success with backup Mike White than with Wilson, but it is not obvious that White is the answer. White gives the Jets a high floor and low ceiling in terms of success. He can win them games but likely not put them over the top to make the playoffs. Moreover, with their selection in the Draft in 2023, the Jets are likely out of range to get any of the three top-rated quarterbacks; Bryce Young, Will Levis, or C.J. Stroud.
So, while the Jets have many pieces in place, the longer they ride the quarterback carousel, the longer they leave themselves in limbo. If they want success in the AFC East and the NFL, New York needs to either commit to Wilson or cut bait.
Until then, it will be hard to see the Jets as a legitimate contender for the AFC East title or as anything more than a minor inconvenience on a schedule.
The New England Patriots
Despite an embarrassing year that featured the lowest of lows, the Patriots have the brightest outlook in the division. For New England, an 8-9 season is rock bottom. And when you hit rock bottom, the only way is up.
With significant changes to come along with the offensive coaching staff and the sixth most cap space in the NFL in 2023, the Patriots have an opportunity to secure a batch of talented free agents and still nab a top-15 player in the NFL Draft. It almost seems too good to be true. And, in some ways, it is.
After a regression from Mac Jones in his second year, questions about his legitimacy as the Patriots franchise quarterback heightened. With multiple blowouts on the sideline with Matt Patricia, an injury that sidelined him for a month, and a pedestrian stat line on the season, Mac Jones’ sophomore year was like “Murphy’s Law.” Anything that could go wrong went wrong.
But Mac improved and poised play down the stretch offered a glimpse of optimism to Patriots fans pained by the 2022-2023 season. He was accurate, did not turn the ball over, and gave an anemic offense a pulse. Hypothetically, bolstering the offensive line, adding another receiver, and giving him and the entire offense legitimate and experienced coaching things should improve in Foxboro.
Of the teams in the AFC East, the Patriots have the most promise in terms of what is ahead of them and what has been settled behind them. New England does not have a legitimate quarterback controversy, has ample draft capital, and just about as much money to spend in the off-season.
And with Bill Belichick chasing not only another Super Bowl but Don Shula’s win record, it should be no surprise that the Patriots are sharpening their knives and carefully planning their way back to the top of the AFC East.
If I was to predict the standing at the end of next season in the AFC East, it would look like this:
Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
The Bills are still too talented for the division, but New England will leap in the standings. Good coaching should give them a one to two-win boost. And as for the Dolphins and Jets, with quarterback concerns and an inability to get over the hump, it is hard to see them making any more noise than they did this season.
Though the 2022 NFL season has not ended for the San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, and Philadelphia Eagles, the 2023 season in the AFC has already begun.
-JH