The Patriots Can't Afford to Continue Drafting Poorly. Literally!

Drafting woes have come back to haunt New England's salary cap in a big way

With NFL free-agency season upon us and the NFL Draft looming, fans are beginning to see what Patriots insiders have seen for years. Going back as far as 2016, the Patriots' early-round draft picks have been nothing short of a disaster. Players like N’Keal Harry (1st, 2019), JoeJuan Willaims (2nd, 2019), Duke Dawson Jr. (2nd, 2018), and Cyrus Jones (2nd, 2016) have all severely underperformed relative to their selection-place in the draft and prevented the Patriots from developing reliable, home-grown talent. While Bill Belichick does have a knack for finding undrafted talents like J.C. Jackson, Malcolm Butler, and Gunner Olszewski, it would be of obvious benefit for the team to draft well across the board. By failing to do so, Belichick creates a much broader problem; the effect on the Patriots’ salary cap.

To begin, NFL rookies, upon being drafted, sign four-year rookie contracts with a fifth-year option. The price tag attached to these contracts is well under the market asking price for each position and locks-in young talent onto NFL rosters for cheap. But with the abundance of young players underperforming on the Patriots, the New England front office has been forced to sign players on the free-agency market for a much higher price, limiting their overall cap space. For example, in recent years, the Patriots put themselves in a tough spot by failing to draft well at the tight end and wide receiver positions. As a result, the Patriots had to spend major money in the 2021 off-season to get players like Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, and Nelson Aghalor, the latter two showing little production in their first year on the team. Those two signings, in particular, affect the Patriots’ ability to retain players of their own and continue to grow their team this year, missing out on resigning guard Ted Karras, cornerback J.C. Jackson, and being forced to trade guard Shaq Mason. It also meant we could not even enter the conversation for signing big-name players like wide receiver Allen Robinson, linebacker Von Miller, or tackle La’El Collins. 

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Mac Jones has proven that he, in only one year in the league, is a slightly above-average QB on an above-average development pace. Jones was by far the best rookie quarterback in the 2021 draft class, and in many games, he played last year, he was the better quarterback on the field. If Jones continues to improve at the rate we saw last year, he may become a top-ten quarterback in the league in no time. In recent years, the top-ten NFL quarterback asking price has risen precipitously, with quarterbacks being offered hundred-million-dollar contracts as if they were nothing. 

As it stands, Mac has three more years, and likely one more if the Patriots pick up his fifth-year option to play in New England on a relatively inexpensive contract. That is an ideal scenario for the Patriots to make a run at a Super Bowl, as a sizable chunk of their cap space will not be spent fronted to their quarterback. They have an opportunity to build on their young defense, create a formidable offensive line, and supply Jones with a plethora of dynamic weapons. But this dream at a title run is dampened by the fact the Patriots have balked on so many previous early-round picks. 

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Why the Patriots have failed to identify talent in the early rounds of the draft is still somewhat of a mystery. Some have suggested it is a result of Bill Belichick’s mercurial attitude and approach to the game. While it could be part of the reason why he is terrific at finding phenomenal undrafted and practice-squad players, it could also be why he misses so often on the highly-projected players. Belichick is constantly playing chess while the rest of the league plays checkers. That said, sometimes Belichick has to play checkers, and that’s not what he’s used to playing. Perhaps doing the easy thing for Belichick is harder than it should be. 

Another culprit is scheme fit. The Patriots ask their players to do a lot. They have an amoeba-like quality to their team. They contort and adjust their offense and defense depending on their opponent week in and week out. Typically, teams go into games and play their defense against their opponent’s offense. But the Patriots vastly alter their game plan week to week, which can be difficult for young players to adjust to. Switching from a nickel and dime defense one week to a 4-3 and 4-4 defensive scheme can be confusing. So, to use some of the examples from before, were Duke Dawson Jr. and Cyrus Jones bad players in disguise throughout high school, college, and the combine? Probably not. Were they likely not up to the task to handle the complicated and ever-changing nature of the Patriots’ defense? That’s more likely the case. I imagine, had they gone to an admittedly more one-dimensional team, they would have been better players than they were in Foxborough. 

The last thing I can think of regarding these shortcomings in the draft is plain old, bad luck. While it may sound like a cop-out, I still believe it could be an element in the water. For example, Cyrus Jones tore his ACL in the final pre-season game of 2017. A year later, Duke Dawson Jr. was on injured reserve for most of 2018 with a hamstring injury. Today, N’Keal Harry doesn’t have the skillset or mindset to play in this offense, while also being on IR for his rookie season. While I’m not trying to absolve the Patriots’ front office of their draft-day woes, it’s not entirely their fault. Injuries happen, and oversight exists. The goal now is for the Patriots to get it right in the draft, lift Mac Jones, and allow him to play to his full potential. If they can't, it may be a long rebuilding period for New England.

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Despite some of those grim prognostications, the Patriots have done surprisingly well in the early rounds of their last two drafts. They drafted solid players in Mac Jones (1st, 2021), Christian Barmore (2nd, 2021), Rhamondre Stevenson (4th, 2021), Kyle Dugger (2nd, 2020), and Josh Uche (2nd, 2020). All five of these players have shown promise, many of them starters last year, and are primed to have integral roles on the team next season. But the questions remain; will it be enough, and is it too little, too late? There is still some time for the Patriots to improve this off-season. Free agency is chugging along, and the draft offers a place to get younger and more skilled. Perhaps, like their last two drafts, the Patriots can continue to change their ways and find themselves some franchise players. But until we see the results on the field next season, our drafting failures will continue to be a dark cloud in the sky of what is otherwise a very bright future for Mac Jones and the Patriots. 

-JH